Data Linkage Project: Effectiveness of ACE in predicting reoffending

Published date:

Within the Probation Board for Northern Ireland (PBNI) the Assessment, Case Management and Evaluation system (ACE) assessment tool is currently the main generic assessment tool used to measure the likelihood of general reoffending over a two year period.

In summer 2024 PBNI commissioned the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) to complete a data linkage project to help determine the effectiveness of the Assessment, Case Management and Evaluation system (ACE) assessment tool.

Data for individuals supervised by PBNI during 2019/20 and 2020/21 was linked with the Department of Justice (DoJ) reoffending dataset and analysis carried out in relation to gender, age, disposal type and number of reoffences.

A report summarising the findings from the data linkage project and the full detailed report can be viewed via the links below.

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